12 · The ask
Do not raise $558 million for a slide
Two cheques, never one. Holding Phase 1 is a $3.6M SME raise for Markets, Jewels and Labs. The original STAR KEY ask is $558M equity, $1.116B debt, $186M grants for a plant whose energy, offtake and resource are not yet proven. Raise development equity that buys the proofs. Paper Power at STAR KEY Energy PLC — not on AURION MARKETS.
Ask A — holding Phase 1
Pre-seed
$100k
MVP, prototypes, filings, PLC
Seed
$500k
Platform, workshop, first export lots
Series A
$3.0M
Only against an order book
Total
$3.6M
40–60% across three rounds if priced as printed
≈$7.2M if $3.6M buys 50% — rich for pre-revenue Ethiopian HoldCo unless Jewels/IP is evidenced.
Ask B — Power Phase 1 (if gates close)
Phase 1 CAPEX
$248M
50 MW PV + 20 MW geo wellfield/plant + 5 ha + interconnect
Equity (35%)
$105M
Debt (50%)
$105M
Grants (15%)
$37M
GRMF drilling + climate funds — not assumed closed
Project IRR
500.0%
Min DSCR
-0.69×
Use of Phase 1 proceeds
| Workstream | Months | Gate |
|---|---|---|
| 3–6 deep wells + resource report (SPE/PRMS-style) | 18–24 | P90 MW ≥ 15 before power block |
| 12-month DNI + GHI + soiling mast | 12 | CSP option lives or dies here |
| 50 MW PV + substation bay | 18–24 | Signed PPA + IA before NTP |
| Pump tests, RO pilot, 5 ha greenhouse | 18 | Water licence |
| ESIA Category A, FPIC, land title | 12–18 | IFC PS sign-off |
| PPA term sheet with MoF wrap | parallel | No wrap, no debt |
If you insist on the 250 MW ask
Independent full-plant NPV at 10% is −$1.59B with project IRR 500.0% and min DSCR -0.16×. To clear a 1.30× DSCR you need some mix of: tariff well above $0.10, grants above 10%, leverage below 50%, or a much smaller CSP block. Use the live model in the room with the lender.
Who should be in the cap table
- Development equity: climate PE / DFI co-invest (Proparco, FMO, Norfund, EAIF) — not a 49% cash private with 26% EEP in-kind until land and IA are real.
- Debt: AfDB / TDB / commercial only after PPA wrap. World Bank is a policy lender to GoE, not an automatic IPP lender.
- Grants: GRMF for wells; GCF for the adaptation (water, greenhouse) story. Bid them. Do not book them.
- Strategic: an Ormat-class geo OEM and a CSP EPC with a completed African plant — as contractors with skin, not logos on a slide.
Conditions precedent we would write
- Independent resource report and 12-month on-site DNI.
- Executed PPA with USD capacity payment and MoF guarantee.
- EEP interconnection agreement and system-impact study.
- Land title + FPIC record + Category A ESIA.
- Pump test and water licence for the RO volume actually needed.
- Financial model audited; original 28.7% IRR retired from all decks.