16 · Diligence workpaper
What changed when the file was re-checked
Pass dated 8 October 2026. Ten claims a credit committee would actually argue. Each one is either supported, partial, disputed or rejected — and each rejection has a fix that can be written into a conditions schedule. The screening model was not re-tuned to make the IRR kinder.
Printed generation is 1.752 TWh and the IRR is 28.7%.
200 MW × 50% + 30 MW × 40% + 20 MW × 90% = 1.14 TWh before availability. $1.86B of capital against that revenue is not a 28% unlevered yield. The PwC wording in the pack is not a confirmed audit opinion.
Fix · Retire the slide. Credit uses the live model on Financials: sponsor case, honest CFs, independent 250 MW, Phase 1.
A $0.10/kWh, 20-year PPA with EEP is in hand.
The pack contains a term sheet, not an executed PPA, guarantee or LC. EEU’s FY2025/26 gap was 14.69 billion birr. Stated generation cost 6.5–7 US cents; retail under 2 cents (Addis Fortune, 9 Aug 2026).
Fix · USD capacity payment, small energy charge, MoF wrap, offshore account. No debt against EEU’s retail margin.
GERD’s surplus makes any new plant unneeded.
Nameplate 5,150 MW, inaugurated 9 Sep 2025, design ~15,700 GWh. FY ended 7 Jul 2026: EEP reported 35,671 GWh, 51.5% GERD — about 18,400 GWh and ~2,100 MW average if the share applies (New Business Ethiopia, 1 Aug 2026, unaudited). September 2026: inflows down ~20% and miner supply cut to 23% of contract (Capital, 20 Sep 2026).
Fix · Do not sell annual bulk MWh against wet-year hydro. Sell dry-season and evening capacity. Do not book 5,150 MW as firm, and do not keep “2,350 MW online” as the 2026 picture.
Crypto miners are a fallback offtaker.
Same September report: 39 miner PPAs, 31 operating, tariff 3.2 US cents, deliveries cut first when water fell. NBE notices of 27 Feb 2026 and 23 Jul 2026 restrict virtual-asset business. Export target for 2026/27 was revised to $279 million.
Fix · Refused. A kill-criterion, not a sensitivity case.
Tendaho can support 20 MW now, at $2.50/W.
220–270°C wells are a temperature, not a reserves statement. No commercial plant at Tendaho. The private comps (Tulu Moye, Corbetti) were rewriting their PPAs on 15 Sep 2026 and had not confirmed a return to drilling (ThinkGeoEnergy).
Fix · 3–6 wells on a grant or expendable budget. P90 before a power block. Change-in-law cover if the tariff is cut after a well is accepted.
Ethiopia has 7.3 MW of geothermal online at Aluto, so the resource class is proven.
Ecofin (13 Nov 2025) still describes a 7.3 MW operating plant and a policy expansion toward 75 MW. Global Energy Monitor’s 7 Sep 2026 page lists the 7.3 MW pilot as mothballed and two 35 MW units as under construction. Both cannot be used as firm capacity.
Fix · Cite Aluto as a pilot with a disputed operating status. Do not use it as an availability analogue for Tendaho.
Tariff reform reaches cost recovery, so a premium PPA will clear.
Energy for Growth Hub (6 Jul 2026): 8th of 16 quarterly steps began June 2026; subsidy-elimination target 2027/28. The last full public birr schedule we rely on is EEU’s Oct–Dec 2025 sheet (low-voltage industry 3.0889 birr/kWh). We do not have an October 2026 posted schedule, so we do not invent one.
Fix · Track posted tariffs. Do not treat the path chart as a contract price.
USD/ETB ≈ 163, so the August FX note is stale.
On 2 Oct 2026 commercial mids printed 162.6–163.3. CBE cash buy 160.23; strongest published cash buy that morning 164.88 (Oromia). The August figure of ~163 is still inside the band. Bank boards differ from mids — use the rate in the financing documents, not a converter screenshot.
Fix · 100% USD capacity payment. ETB only for local O&M, indexed.
150 ha holds 200 MW of troughs plus 50 MW PV.
Utility PV screens at roughly 2.2–2.8 ha per MWp with roads and setbacks. Phase 1 PV alone presses the parcel before wells, a greenhouse and a grazing corridor. Troughs at 2–2.5 ha/MW do not fit beside it. This is a screen, not a survey.
Fix · Cadastral and topographic survey before any module deposit. CSP stays off this parcel.
40,000 tonnes of fertilizer and a signed ESIA, land lease and JV are in the pack.
A 20 ha greenhouse has no feedstock for that tonnage. EIA approval, the JV (26/25/49) and the landholding certificate are asserted, not produced as executed instruments.
Fix · Agri is a 5 ha lab in Phase 1. Category A ESIA and FPIC before construction equity.
What this pass does not claim
- EEP’s 35,671 GWh is a deputy CEO figure in one news reprint. It is not an audited generation account.
- The 9,752 MW “installed” figure is as stated in the 20 September miner story. It is not a unit registry.
- No October 2026 EEU birr tariff sheet was in hand. The Oct–Dec 2025 schedule is the last full public one used here.
- Aluto’s operating status is left disputed on purpose. Two sources disagree.
- None of this is a licence, an ESIA approval, or an offer of securities.