14 · Sources & method
What we trusted, what we did not
Recast dated 8 October 2026. The 2 October pass added EEP’s FY generation reprint, EEU’s FY2025/26 cash gap, the September inflow curtailment, and the Corbetti / Tulu Moye tariff reopen. Where a figure is arithmetic on a news report, the workpaper says so. Holding revenue remains an independent SME path, not the printed $1B year-10.
Sponsor assertions we do not treat as facts
- PwC financial validation / 28.7% IRR / $870M NPV.
- 20-year PPA with EEP at $0.10/kWh (term sheet in an appendix is not an executed PPA).
- “EIA approved.”
- 40,000 t/yr organic fertilizer and 50 billion m³ Afar groundwater storage.
- UNICEF/MWE 2024 hydro-census excerpts as reproduced in the pack.
- JV ownership (EEP 26 / Afar 25 / private 49) as signed.
- Abengoa and Ormat as committed contractors.
Documents in the pack
STAR KEY Investor Pitch Deck
pptx · Source of 28.7% IRR / $558M equity ask
STAR KEY CPA Business Plan
docx · CPA-prepared narrative; generation math inherited
STAR KEY A.E.F.P. long-form plan
docx / pdf · Technical appendices, GPS, soils, water
STAR KEY Due Diligence Package
docx · Lender-facing summary; not an independent DD
STAR KEY Appendices
docx · Geotech, seismic, PPA term sheet, PwC language
STAR KEY Investor Executive Summary
docx · One-pager of sponsor case
AURION GLOBAL HOLDINGS bankable plan
docx · Holding architecture; AURION POWER is Phase 3
JICA/GSE Geothermal Master Plan 2015
pdf · Tendaho field context — dated, still the reference
Ethiopian Energy Outlook 2025
pdf · Sector snapshot (May 2025)
World Bank PRIME-1 PID
pdf · Power-sector reform lending
PPIAF Ethiopia PPP assessment 2024
pdf · PPP capacity — relevant to 1076/2018 path
GSE/JICA Geothermal Master Plan (2015)
pdf · Tendaho field still the reference map
Ethio telecom share prospectus (Oct 2024)
pdf · Payments/Telebirr context for Markets
Cited sources
S1 · Sep 2025 – Mar 2026
GERD inaugurated — 5,150 MW, ~15,700 GWh/yr
Webuild / Water Power Magazine
https://www.webuildgroup.com/en/media/press-releases/grand-ethopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-inaugurated/S2 · Jan–Aug 2025
Ethiopia electricity access — 44% Tier 1+ (MTF 2025); ~60 million unelectrified
World Bank
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/08/04/new-world-bank-program-to-expand-electricity-access-to-six-million-people-across-ethiopiaS3 · 6 Jul 2026
16-step tariff reform 2024–2028; 8th hike June 2026; 4–6× residential path
Energy for Growth Hub
https://energyforgrowth.org/article/a-cheap-kilowatt-hour-a-weak-birr-and-a-debt-crisis-walk-into-a-bar/S4 · 9 Sep 2024
EEU tariff reform announcement (122% opening move)
Capital Ethiopia
https://capitalethiopia.com/2024/09/09/eeu-announces-major-electricity-tariff-reform/S5 · 2025
IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024 — CSP LCOE $0.092/kWh
IRENA
https://www.irena.org/Digital-Report/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2024S6 · project page
Xina Solar One — 100 MW CSP, $880M construction cost
NREL SolarPACES
https://solarpaces.nrel.gov/project/xina-solar-oneS7 · 2005, 2024
Tendaho well temperatures 220–270°C; Alalobeda springs 150–220°C
IGA / WGC; Cherkose 2024 MT study
https://www.geothermal-energy.org/pdf/IGAstandard/WGC/2005/0838.pdfS8 · Apr 2025
Aluto-Langano 7.3 MW — Ethiopia’s only operating geothermal plant
Frontiers in Energy Research
https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/energy-research/articles/10.3389/fenrg.2025.1529232/fullS9 · May 2026
Afar GHI: Semera 6.7, Dubti 6.1, Assaita 6.3 kWh/m²/day
Research Square / solar resource papers
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-9522768/latest.pdfS10 · 18–19 Aug 2026
USD/ETB mid-market ≈ 163
XE / commercial bank boards
https://www.xe.com/en-us/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=USD&To=ETBS11 · 2019, IEA update Apr 2026
NEP 2.0 universal access by 2025 (policy target, not outcome)
GoE / IEA policy database
https://www.iea.org/policies/30385-national-electrification-program-20-nep-20S12 · Feb–Jun 2026
Corbetti / Tulu Moye still in development
ThinkGeoEnergy / PIDG
https://www.thinkgeoenergy.com/tag/ethiopia/S13 · 2018–2026
PPP Proclamation No. 1076/2018; geothermal regulations 453/2019
Federal Negarit Gazeta / ICLG Ethiopia 2026
https://iclg.com/practice-areas/renewable-energy-laws-and-regulations/ethiopia/S14 · May 2025 update
Organic fertilizer market Ethiopia CAGR ~6.4% 2025–2031
6Wresearch (sponsor-cited)
https://www.6wresearch.com/industry-report/ethiopia-organic-fertilizers-marketS15 · Jul 2026
Ethiopia exports $10.7B in FY2025/26; coffee $3.0B record
Rio Times / official trade reprints
https://www.riotimesonline.com/ethiopia-exports-record-2026/S16 · Aug 2026
GERD ~2,350 MW reported online vs 5,150 MW nameplate; Koysha 2,160 MW slated 2026
Mordor Intelligence Ethiopia Renewable Energy 2026
https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/ethiopia-renewable-energy-marketS17 · 13 Nov 2025
Aluto-Langano 7.3 MW operating; expansion to 75 MW is policy. Tendaho cited as 20 MW pilot ambition
Ecofin Agency
https://www.ecofinagency.com/news-industry/1311-50462-ethiopia-advances-geothermal-expansion-aims-to-reduce-diesel-reliance-and-create-jobsS18 · 20 May 2026
USDA FAS Ethiopia Coffee Annual — MY 2026/27 12.10M bags production, 7.13M bags exports
USDA FAS
https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/gain/2026/05/ethiopia-coffee-annualS19 · 1 Aug 2026
EEP FY to 7 Jul 2026: 35,670.99 GWh (93.6% of plan); GERD 51.5%
New Business Ethiopia, citing EEP Generation deputy CEO
https://newbusinessethiopia.com/energy/ethiopia-generates-21-percent-more-electricity-half-generated-from-gerd/S20 · 9 Aug 2026
EEU FY2025/26 spent Br 133.59bn vs Br 118.91bn revenue; cost 6.5–7¢, sold <2¢
Addis Fortune
https://addisfortune.news/power-utility-spends-past-its-record-yearS21 · 20 Sep 2026
Inflows ~−20%; miner supply cut 98%→23% at 3.2¢; export target $279m
Capital Ethiopia
https://capitalethiopia.com/2026/09/20/el-nino-drought-threatens-ethiopian-power-supply-to-crypto-miners/S22 · 15 Sep 2026
Tulu Moye and Corbetti stalled; PPAs being rewritten; Taranis up to $27m
ThinkGeoEnergy
https://www.thinkgeoenergy.com/ethiopia-advances-restart-of-two-geothermal-projects/S23 · 2 Oct 2026
USD/ETB commercial mids 162.6–163.3
Trading Economics / exchange-rates.org; bank boards via EthioForex
https://tradingeconomics.com/ethiopia/currency
This document is an independent recast for discussion. It is not an offer to sell securities, not legal, tax or investment advice, and not a substitute for a licensed feasibility study, ESIA or audited model. STAR KEY Energy Holdings remains the project sponsor. Figures in USD unless noted.