AURION

05 · Energy market

Ethiopia’s power market in 2026 is not 2020

The original plan still talks as if NEP 2.0 delivered universal access in 2025, hydropower is a 4 GW system, and a $0.10 PPA is a formality. GERD is in, the tariff reform is half-run, and access is still 44%.

System snapshot

GERD

Nameplate 5,150 MW · design ~15,700 GWh · inaugurated 9 September 2025

FY to 7 Jul 2026: EEP reported 35,671 GWh, 51.5% from GERD — about 18,400 GWh and ~2,100 MW average if that share holds. One reprint, not a unit log. Do not book 5.15 GW as firm, and do not keep “2,350 MW online” as the 2026 picture.

Pre-GERD fleet

~5,200 MW, ~90% hydro

The original pack’s “3,000 MW deficit” is no longer the right frame.

Access

44% Tier-1+ (World Bank MTF 2025). ~60 million people still off-grid. Urban ~94%.

NEP 2.0’s 2025 universal-access target was missed. Afar remains thinly served — a social case, not a 250 MW offtake case.

Geothermal fleet

Pilot historically 7.3 MW; operating status disputed as of Sep 2026. Corbetti and Tulu Moye are stalled and rewriting their PPAs — not operating.

ThinkGeoEnergy, 15 Sep 2026. A Tendaho draft will face the same reopen. Do not drill equity wells against it.

FX

USD/ETB 163 still inside the 2 Oct 2026 band (162.6–163.3 mid). CBE cash buy 160.23 that morning.

The 2024 float invalidated the tariff study’s FX. 70%+ of this CAPEX is imported.

Merchandise exports

FY2025/26 record ~$10.7B; coffee ~$3B

Supports the holding’s Markets/Jewels thesis at TAM level. It does not put gold bars or coffee sacks on AURION’s P&L.

GERD nameplate: Webuild. FY generation: EEP via New Business Ethiopia, 1 Aug 2026. EEU cash: Addis Fortune, 9 Aug 2026. FX: 2 Oct 2026 mids. Access: World Bank 2025.

Tariff reform is the only reason a USD PPA is even discussable

On 11 September 2024 EEU began a 16-step quarterly hike toward cost recovery by 2028. Energy for Growth Hub (6 July 2026) records the 8th step in June 2026. Lowest-band residential tariffs are on a 4–6× path by 2028; industrial on a ~6× path. That is the IMF/World Bank program, not a private-market clearing price.

Indexed to pre-reform = 1.0 (path, not posted tariff)

What the original pack gets right

  • Hydropower concentration is a climate risk. 2022–24 drought years were the political case for geo and solar.
  • PPP Proclamation 1076/2018 and geothermal regulations (453/2019) are the right legal rails.
  • Industrial parks and export interconnectors (Sudan, Kenya, Djibouti) can absorb firm power if the PPA is structured for it.
  • Organic fertilizer demand in Ethiopia is growing (6Wresearch CAGR ~6.4% 2025–31). That is a real market — not a 40,000 t/yr plant on 20 ha.

What it gets wrong

  • “NEP 2.0 / 100% by 2025” is a lapsed target. Cite Mission 300 / ELEAP instead.
  • “GTP II / 17,000 MW by 2030” is a planning slogan. GERD alone rewrites the capacity stack.
  • East African PPA comps of $0.08–0.12/kWh are for PV and proven geothermal, not first-of-kind 12-hour CSP.
  • Abengoa as a CSP delivery analogue is a 2010s name. Abengoa’s insolvency is part of the CSP risk story, not a comfort item.